Oil futures fell moderately, departing from five-month high, driven by the strengthening of the dollar in response to labor market data and statements of the ECB Draghi.
According to experts, lower prices – a sign that the market has reached unsustainable high after recent gains, and that traders are going to take profits amid signs of weakness.
During the press conference after the announcement of the decision on the rate Draghi said that interest rates will remain unchanged or will be reduced for a longer time. Such statements suggest that the Central Bank may resort to further easing of monetary policy. Meanwhile, Draghi said that the Central Bank will continue to closely monitor the situation with inflation and, if necessary, will use all available instruments in the framework of the mandate to achieve the inflation target. “Under the available tools meant a change of key interest rates, but the rates on deposits, which are already negative, can not be reduced indefinitely.” – Said Draghi.
Meanwhile, a report from the Labor Department showed that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits dropped fell on 6000 and reached a seasonally adjusted 247,000 in the week ended April 16. It was the low level of applications for unemployment benefits, since the week ending November 24, 1973. Data last week also noted the 59th week in a row, when the primary applications for unemployment benefits remained below 300 000. Economists had expected 263,000 initial claims last week. Data last week have not been revised (253,000). The moving average of four weeks, which smooths out volatility, fell by 4,500 last week to 260 500. Fed policy is likely to take into account the relative health of the labor market at a meeting next week. Nevertheless, central banks have shown that they are concerned about the weakness in the global economy and a close look at the evidence of inflation and salary increases. The vast majority of economists expect that during the April meeting the Fed will leave its key interest rate unchanged.
Little support for oil provided comments from the oil industry. Today, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol said that the IEA in 2016 expects the highest in 25 years, a reduction of oil supplies from countries outside OPEC. “This year we expect the largest in the last 25 years, the decline in the country’s oil supply outside OPEC to nearly 700 thousand barrels per day.” – Said Birol. He also noted that the growth in global demand, where the leaders are now China, India and other developing countries, currently has a “hectic pace.”
WTI for delivery in June fell to $43.66 a barrel. Brent for June fell to $45.08 a barrel.
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