Australian Dollar
Expected Range 0.7540 – 0.7640
The Australian dollar had an up and down day on Friday after making gains against the USD during Australian Trade following positive Chinese GDP data before losing ground late after another month of US retails sales data coming in ahead of expectations. As China is the major trading partner for Australia the health of the Chinese economy is seen as a leading indicator for the Australian economy with some expecting that the Chinese economy was slowing faster than expected so the data out on Friday indicates that growth in China has stabilised. The AUD opens this morning buying 75.90 US cents.
New Zealand Dollar
Expected Range 0.7080 – 0.7180
The NZD had a sluggish end to the week after starting the week strongly. The NZD lost ground after positive US retail sales data and profit taking in the lead up to the weekend. The monthly inflation data will be released this morning at 10:45 am local time with the market expecting a result of 0.5%. The RBNZ has said that it will issue a brief update on its economic assessment on Thursday because of the longer gaps between meetings. The update has weighed on the NZD and as a result did not make gains against the USD following the positive GDP data out of china. The NZD is currently buying 71.35 US cents.
Great British Pound
Expected Range 1.7100 – 1.7500
The Pound held onto the 1.32 handle versus the US Dollar as the outcome from Thursday Bank of England announcement to leave rates on hold buoyed short term optimism in the pair. Despite an upbeat reading in US Retail Sales late Friday, Cable remained solidly intact in the 1.3100 to 1.32 range. It is a big week data wise for the Pound with 2 Monetary Policy Committees members scheduled to speak Monday and Wednesday which will have the market looking to any comments from the speeches in regards to an August rate cut and a potential sign of an increase to the QE program. That coupled with UK Unemployment Rate and Retail Sales reading towards the end of the week could see some swings for Sterling against a basket of currencies. Against the Australia Dollar the Pound is changing hands at 1.7365 and 1.8463 against the New Zealand Dollar.
Majors
Expected Range N/A
The USD had a strong finish to the week after consumer spending continued to be have a positive result coming in at 0.6% vs expectations of 0.2%. Growth in consumer spending indicates that consumers are willing to spend their money and as a result is a positive sign for the US economy and along with the jobs numbers are an indication that US is continuing its recovery into an economy with stable growth. The USD performed well against most major currencies giving it a nice finish to the week. Looking to Europe the main focus for the week will be the ECB policy meeting on Thursday with the market looking to see how they will react to the unexpected outcome of the UK referendum.