FXStreet (Mumbai) – David Fritz, Global FX Strategist at Nomura notes, the markets are likely to be on hold for most of the first half of this week. Then on Thursday there will be the UK data ‘superday’ and Friday brings the (always in focus) non-farm payrolls release.
Key Quotes:
“On the three policy meetings to be held next week (RBA, BOE, and BOJ), our economists no not expect much in terms of new actions.”
“For the RBA, the main aspects to watch are mentions of the need for further exchange rate depreciation and for any downward revisions to growth estimates (and particularly the rationales for such revisions.”
“The BoE is similarly not expected to make much of a change, but the event will be one of many on Thursday, which means even small news might fan a larger flame depending on how the other data come in.”
“Japan also is not expected to change policy, but markets will of course follow Kuroda’s press conference, particularly around his views on CPI.”
“In terms of data, the main focus will be the cluster of data in the UK on Thursday as well as NFP in the US on Friday. As our UK economist succinctly summarized: plenty of data are released this week too, including the PMIs where we are quite gloomy on services, and IP where we are bullish manufacturing only.”
“NFP, as always, will indicate the health of the labor market – an important indicator for the Fed. Our econ team is currently roughly in line with the market, expecting a 230K increase in payrolls, while the market is at 225K. This should keep the unemployment rate at 5.3%.”
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