Following the death of Philly Fed's dead-cat-bounce, Dallas Fed did the same with a disappointing thud back to -13.9 (missing expectations of a rise to -10.0). This is the 16th consecutive month in contraction (below 0) and respondents are increasingly depressed, "it is a bad time for manufacturing, agriculture and mining – the only sectors that actually create wealth." What kind of fiction are these real average joes peddling? Have they not seen the jobs data?
A recession by any other name should smell so bad…
While new orders rose, number of employees and employee workweek contracted as future expectations tumbled to a 0.4 print with CapEx and wages expected to drop.
Here is the fiction the Dallas Fed respondents are peddling:
"Most of our clients are reporting slower sales heading into second quarter and expect further slowing into fourth quarter. As a result, they are stocking less and asking for faster shipments. Asian markets—especially China and Russia—are frequently discussed, but domestic production of biological products seems to have peaked in 2015 and is slowing."
"Customers are really dragging their feet on payments. Terms are 15 to 30 days beyond agreed terms per the purchase order."
"The summer season is the slow season, and we are already planning to go to a 32-hour work week."
"It is a bad time for manufacturing, agriculture and mining—the only sectors that actually create wealth."
"There is persistent downward pressure on the oilfield services industry due to continued weak oil and gas commodity prices and depressed activity levels both onshore and offshore. Already weak, and weakening, global economic outlooks foreshadow an even longer down cycle for the energy industry. It is expected that even though crude oil commodity prices may be achieving high points for 2016, exploration and development and the associated oilfield service activities that accompany them will continue to be depressed through 2017 as supply will continue to outstrip demand."
"I'm not normally a pessimist, but deep sea drilling looks to be pretty darn ugly moving forward."
"Politics. Gas. Oil. ISIS. This is not a good time to be in business."
And to sum it all up perfectly:
"Over-taxation, complicated export/import regulations and increasingly burdensome labor regulations are slowing down growth, hiring and expansion."
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