FXStreet (Guatemala) – Analysts at TD Securities noted the key events coming up next week and highlighted three of those that will arrive from the UK.
Key Quotes:
“1. June Unemployment (Wed 12 Aug): The 3MMA unemployment rate bounced off a post-crisis low in April, ticking up to 5.6% in its May release. We see the rate holding here for the three months to June, as claimant counts have held relatively stable in recent months. This places us largely in line with the consensus view, as well as the just-published Inflation Report forecast, which expects the unemployment rate to hold at its current level through September.
2. July CPI (Tue 18 Aug): Annual CPI growth has been hovering around zero percent since February this year, largely on account of weak commodity prices and GBP strength. We anticipate next week’s print to be in line with recent months, at 0% y/y, as these factors are expected to continue weighing through most of 2015. Core inflation, too, has remained relatively soft in recent months, and we expect just a minor up-tick from June’s 0.8% y/y reading to 0.9% y/y in July.
3. July Retail Sales (Thu 20 Aug): With low headline inflation and recent wage and productivity growth supporting healthy growth of real household incomes, we expect June’s negative retail sales reading to be just a blip. We expect a small increase coming for July. Recent surveys show households are more confident about further income increases, and consumption growth has been gaining momentum over recent quarters, so we don’t see this trend reversing in the near-term.”
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