The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in October 2016 according to the U.S. Census Bureau, rising from $36.2 billion in September (revised lower from $36.4 billion) to $42.6 billion in October, higher than the $41.8BN consensus estimate, as exports decreased and imports increased which was to be expected following the recent surge in the US Dollar. The goods deficit increased $6.3 billion in October to $63.4 billion. The services surplus decreased $0.1 billion in October to $20.8 billion.
Breaking down the main trade categories, exports of goods and services decreased $3.4 billion, or 1.8 percent, in October to $186.4 billion. Exports of goods decreased $3.5 billion and exports of services increased $0.1 billion.
- The decrease in exports of goods reflected decreases in foods, feeds, and beverages ($1.4 billion), in industrial supplies and materials ($1.0 billion), and in consumer goods ($0.9 billion).
- The increase in exports of services mostly reflected an increase in transport ($0.1 billion), which includes freight and port services and passenger fares.
At the same time, imports of goods and services increased $3.0 billion, or 1.3 percent, in October to $229.0 billion. Imports of goods increased $2.8 billion and imports of services increased $0.2 billion.
- The increase in imports of goods mostly reflected increases in consumer goods ($2.4 billion) and in capital goods ($1.1 billion). A decrease in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.7 billion) partly offset the increases.
- The increase in imports of services reflected an increase in transport ($0.2 billion).
Broken down by country, the October figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, with Hong Kong ($2.6), South and Central America ($1.8), Singapore ($1.3), and Brazil ($0.1). Deficits were recorded, in billions of dollars, with China ($28.9), European Union ($12.9), Mexico ($5.8), Japan ($5.8), Germany ($4.7), India ($2.4), Italy ($2.2), OPEC ($2.1), Canada ($1.7), France ($1.6), South Korea ($1.4), Taiwan ($1.0), United Kingdom ($0.7), and Saudi Arabia ($0.2).
- The deficit with China increased $2.0 billion to $28.9 billion in October. Exports increased $0.5 billion to $10.6 billion and imports increased $2.4 billion to $39.5 billion.
- The balance with Canada shifted from a surplus of $0.2 billion in September to a deficit of $1.7 billion in October. Exports decreased $0.9 billion to $22.0 billion and imports increased $1.0 billion to $23.6 billion.
- The balance with the United Kingdom shifted from a surplus of $0.9 billion in September to a deficit of $0.7 billion in October. Exports decreased $1.0 billion to $4.3 billion and imports increased $0.6 billion to $5.0 billion.
While not a big surprise, we expect that Q4 GDP estimates will see some modest downward revisions as a result of the weaker trade report. The biggest question is how it will translate at the micro level, and how soon before the ongoing dollar strength forces companies, especially those with global sales exposure, to begin trimming their 2017 earnings and revenue forecasts.
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