Latest poll as shown in the figure shows that Labour party is leading the poll but remains neck to neck with current ruling conservative party and probabilities are high that Scottish national party (SNP) might have the power to decide who will be next Prime Minister in Britain.
- As per latest poll, in UK’s massive 650 parliamentary seats, none is yet to reach majority. Labour party is expected win 273 seats and conservative 271 seats, followed by SNP with 54, Liberal democrats 26, UKIP 3 and Green 1.
Pound in past few trading days has either fallen or risen 100-150 basis points within small timeframes without any proper catalyst to explain the move.
This can be seen as a precursor of rising volatility. However implied volatility as measured in options market has reached multi year high.
- Current implied volatility reads about 10% against dollar and 12% against Euro highest since 2011.
- Relative volatility measures point that this year’s election would be more volatile than 2010 election, even Scottish referendum.
Key Stance –
Labour Party, Ed Milliband – No formal Alliance with SNP, however can be asked for support case to case basis. Might give in to demands of SNP over removing Nuclear weapons. Mr. Milliband is planning on additional taxes on Banks and Banker’s grip over UK market.
Conservative Party, David Cameron – Will be negotiating Britain’s position in EU, upon failure might call for early referendum.
SNP, Nicola Sturgeon – Will be looking for greater powers vested towards Scotland, in deciding its own fiscal policy. Might call for another referendum, should UK choose to exit EU. Would like Britain to remove nuclear submarine Trident.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com