Recent housing data has been mixed but there are signs that Q2-2015 may be stronger, including a rise in mortgage approval data, stronger homebuilder confidence and evidence that banks are gradually easing credit conditions (while mortgage rates are still historically low).New home sales were particularly robust in February, rising 7.8% m/m. “While we do not think such an increase was repeated in March, key is that in absolute value new home sales may have remained above 500,000 (we forecast 509,000; consensus: 515,000), suggesting the underlying trend is firming up. Stronger housing would help GDP growth reach our forecast of 3.0% q/q SAAR growth in Q2, after a weak Q1” says Standard Chartered.
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