US Q1 GDP growth is likely to have been feeble, dragged down by a sharp drop in (oil-related) non-residential investment, while private consumption has been lacklustre. The harsh weather was another headwind. The FOMC decision is unlikely to bring surprises. The softness of Q1 data has surprised FOMC members, as the rather dovish tone of the March FOMC meeting and subsequent speeches illustrated. The statement could reference recent weaker data. The bar for a June rate hike appears high, and still forecast a September lift-off.“We forecast 0.5% q/q SAAR growth, following 2.2% growth in Q4. However, we do not think Q1 GDP growth represents the ‘true’ underlying US growth trend”, Says Standard Chartered .
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