FXStreet (Barcelona) – The KBC Bank Research Team sees upside risks for US nonfarm payrolls and earnings data to be released ahead in the day.
Key Quotes
“In May, the US payrolls report came out surprisingly strong, showing a pick-up in hiring from 221 000 to 280 000, returning again to the trend seen in the second half of last year. For June, the consensus is looking for an increase in non-farm payrolls by 230 000. We believe however that the risks remain for an upward surprise.”
“Most recent US eco data showed further signs of improvement, the claims remain close to their recent lows and yesterday’s ADP employment report showed a further pick-up in private sector hiring, to the highest level since December last year.”
“The unemployment rate edged up in May, but the underlying picture was robust. For June, the consensus is looking for a reversal of the uptick, from 5.5% to 5.4%.”
“Also average hourly earnings will be closely watched. On a monthly basis, earnings are forecast to have increased by 0.2% M/M, while the annual rate is expected to have stabilized at 2.3% Y/Y.”
“For the earnings data too, we believe that the risks, if there are any, remain for an upward surprise.”
“Initial jobless claims are forecast to stay broadly unchanged. US factory orders are expected to have dropped for a second straight month.”
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