Analysts from Danske Bank take note of the next key economic numbers from the US, until the end of the month.
Key Quotes:
“In the US, next week is a light one in terms of data releases. The two most important data releases will be Markit manufacturing PMI and durable goods orders due Tuesday and Thursday respectively. Also both existing home sales and new home sales for February are due during the week (Monday and Wednesday, respectively).
“In two weeks, the calendar is a heavy one. The week begins with the release of February PCE figures on Monday. We estimate that the PCE core index rose 0.2% m/m implying an inflation rate of 1.8% y/y, which would be the highest inflation rate since November 2012. (…) On Tuesday we get the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for March. The index has been range-bound over the last year but is currently at the lower end of the range. We expect a rebound to 94, suggesting that consumers are still quite upbeat.”
“The March jobs report is due on Friday 1 April. The development of the labour market has been strong at the beginning of 2016 despite the financial turmoil and some key economic figures being to the weaker side. However, as we have finally seen a rebound in the participation rate, the labour market has tightened relatively less. We still need further data before we are able to estimate employment growth in March but given the higher-than-expected prints in recent months, it is not unlikely that we would see employment growth rising less than trend growth. The development in average hourly earnings will attract attention as they declined from January to February. If wage inflation picks up, the Fed would be more confident raising rates. The unemployment rate was probably unchanged at 4.9 % in March.”
“Lastly, the ISM manufacturing index for March is due on Friday. ISM manufacturing surprised to the upside as it rose to 49.5 in February, suggesting some stabilisation in the manufacturing sector which has otherwise been struggling. That being said, we are not that optimistic on the outlook for the US manufacturing sector as it is still struggling due to the strong dollar, weakness in manufacturing globally, low oil investments and wider credit spreads.”
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