FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, expect a moderate increase in headline CPI in October after the back-to-back decline in the two previous months.
Key Quotes
“We are looking for a moderate increase of 0.167% m-o-m in headline CPI while the market consensus expects 0.2% m-o-m. Although prices for motor fuels and electricity declined on a nonseasonally adjusted basis, we expect the aggregate energy price index of CPI to be essentially flat on the month on a seasonally adjusted basis. Food prices are expected to increase only slightly over the month, as a solid rise in restaurant menu prices (food-away-from-home) should be largely offset by lower food prices at grocery stores (food-at-home). We forecast that CPI NSA declined by 0.07% m-o-m to 237.772 from 237.945 previously.”
“We forecast that core CPI, CPI excluding food and energy, rose by a trend-like pace in October. Our forecast for core CPI inflation is +0.176% m-o-m, lower than the 0.211% advance in the previous month.”
“On core goods prices, although the recent stabilization of import prices for consumer goods in September and October poses some upside risks, we think that the lagged effect of lower import prices of both finished and intermediate goods continued to weigh on consumer goods prices. As a result, we expect a small decline of 0.03% m-o-m in core goods prices.”
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)