FXStreet (Barcelona) – Economists at Deutsche Bank, comment on the ADP employment data release and further share their forecast for US payrolls to be released ahead.
Key Quotes
“The May ADP employment survey showed a 201k gain in private-sector payrolls, up from 165k in the prior month. While modestly weaker than anticipated, given the fact that the initial ADP print has under-predicted the initial change in private nonfarm payrolls in three out of the last four months, we continue to expect a +275k increase in the latter when the May data are released.”
“In addition, the employment component of the non-manufacturing ISM remained firmly in expansion territory (55.3 vs. 56.7) last month and the trend in jobless claims has been encouraging.”
“Case in point, the four-week moving average on initial claims during the May employment survey period was 267k compared to 285k for the April survey week. While this morning’s claims data tell us more about June employment, as long as claims remain near their post-recession low, we are reasonably confident that monthly payroll gains should remain well above 200k over the next several quarters.”
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