FXStreet (Barcelona) – According to the KBC Bank Research Team, US retail sales data release today might see some upside risks to consensus forecast and any rebound in USD from a strong number remains subject to a high level of uncertainty.
Key Quotes
“In the US, the US retail sales are the key data rapport today. A strong growth of 1.2% for headline sales is expected. Import prices and the jobless claims are interesting, too. The consensus for the retail sales is already quite high, but we still see upward risks.”
“Of late, global bonds already underwent a substantial repositioning. Even so, a strong US payrolls report could cause further nervousness/higher yields. In theory, strong US retail sales report should be dollar supportive. Once again, we repeat that German bunds often react in a more pronounced way in a case of a global rise in core bond yields.”
“On Friday, the dollar profited temporary for a strong US payrolls. However, the rise in the interest differential between the US and Europe and the subsequent rise of the dollar were short‐lived.”
“To conclude, a strong retail sales report might be positive of the dollar, but the amount and the sustainability of the gains are subject to a high degree of uncertainty.”
“On Monday the dollar returned most of the post‐payrolls gains which was disappointing for dollar bulls. Since the EUR/USD settled in a sideways consolidation pattern. Yesterday, the Kuroda comments triggered a sharp setback of USD/JPY. There was temporary some negative impact on USD/EUR, but finally EUR/USD settled again in the 1.13 area. So, EUR/USD remains in consolidation modus, but underlying sentiment on the dollar remains fragile. Will today’s retail sales will put more sold floor for the USD.”
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