Australian Dollar
Expected Range 0.7605 – 0.7705
The Australian Dollar finished the week poorly after a soft retails sales release out of the US saw the AUD finish the week at 0.7646. After spending most of Friday bouncing around 0.77 against the USD there was a late flurry of movement during US trade following the retails sales release. Initially the poor retail sales result gave the AUD a boost pushing it up to hit intraday highs of 0.7724 before risk appetite left the market and pushed the AUD down to its levels much closer to the start of the week. The next data release out locally will be the monetary policy meeting minutes which will be released following this month’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.25%.
New Zealand Dollar
Expected Range 0.7140 – 0.7240
The NZD ended the week with a modest 60 point gain for the week which fails to show the swings that the NZD endured during the week. After briefly pushing through 73 cents against the USD on Thursday following the RBNZ decision to cut rates by 0.25% which came with a statement that said that the exchange rate would need to decrease to reach inflation targets. The cutting of rates initially had the opposite reaction with many expecting a more aggressive cut by the RBNZ. Since then the NZD has been unable to sustain the higher levels. The soft retail sales data release out of the US did initially give the Kiwi a bump but that rally was short lived and the Kiwi finished the week buying 0.7186 USD. The main data releases out of New Zealand where it will see the Unemployment Rate, PPI input and the GDT Price Index released.
Great British Pound
Expected Range 1.6720 – 1.6920
The Pound continues to remain volatile against the US Dollar with the pair trading still trading below the 1.30 handle. Fridays trading range for Cable saw it move to a of 1.2910 and a high of 1.3015 as US Retail Sales and the Producer Price Index all came below expectations and potentially pushing back market expectations of any US interest rate hikes to December 2016. Tuesdays CPY and Thursday Unemployment rate are the pick of the data releases in the UK this week with the results being closely looked post Brexit. The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar opens at 1.6840 and 1.7920 respectively.
Majors
Expected Range N/A
The USD had a mixed day on Friday following the release of the retail sales data which came out flat. Recent employment data out of the US has been positive which would normally see the consumers happy to spend money and see an improving retail sales number. The USD lost value across the board following from the release however it was able to claw back losses and more against most major currencies through the end of the day. Japan will release its preliminary GDP data this morning with the markets expecting a small amount of growth for the quarter it will be eagerly watched as a poor showing may see the stimulus packages that have already been promised be expanded in an effort to kick start the economy.