The ISM non-manufacturing index (5 May, 10:00 ET) will indicate the extent of a potential Q2 activity rebound after dismal Q1 GDP growth. The April ISM manufacturing index was unchanged at 51.5 (although with the silver lining of stronger new orders) and services will probably do most of the heavy lifting in the near term. The housing and associated services could surprise to the upside, helping to pull Q2 GDP growth up to 3.0% q/q SAAR. “We see the ISM services index moderating slightly to 56.0 (consensus 56.2) from 56.5, a still-healthy level”, says Standard CharteredThe employment sub-index will help fine-tune expectations ahead of Friday’s payroll report. March trade data (5 May, 08:30 ET) may affect Q1 GDP data, which factored in a large net export drag; Q1 trade was distorted by issues at West Coast ports.
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