US: Sublime October employment report – Goldman Sachs

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Goldman Sachs, notes that the US October employment report was solidly better than expected, and we now see a rate increase from the FOMC at the December meeting as very likely.

Key Quotes

“Payrolls rebounded strongly following tepid growth over the prior two months. Both the U3 and U6 measures of labor market slack declined. Average hourly earnings growth rose to a new high for the cycle.”

“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 271k in October, rebounding strongly from more tepid growth over the prior two months. Net upward revisions to August and September totaled +12k overall and +56k in the private sector. Gains in payrolls were broad based across sectors. Employment in goods producing industries gained 27k after declining by 10k last month. Private service providing employment increased by 241k, up from 159k previously. The acceleration was led by firm gains in business services (+78k after +33k previously) and retail trade (+44k vs +6k previously).”

“The establishment survey also reported that average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month over month and 2.5% year over year— more than expected, and a new cyclical high in year over year terms. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.5 hours.”

“The household survey was similarly encouraging, with a 320k gain in its measure of employment in October. The strong growth last month followed weak reports in preceding months, and the three month average gain in household employment remained modest at +93k. The traditional U3 unemployment rate rounded down to 5.0% from 5.1% in September, but the improvement was tiny on an unrounded basis—to 5.04% from 5.05%. The broader U6 measure declined to 9.8% from 10.0%, helped by a sharp drop in workers on part time schedules for economic reasons.”

“With payrolls, unemployment claims, consumer sentiment, steel production, vehicle sales, and a number of business surveys in hand, our preliminary read on the newly updated October Current Activity Indicator (CAI) is +2.7%, up from +1.7% in September.”

Research Team at Goldman Sachs, notes that the US October employment report was solidly better than expected, and we now see a rate increase from the FOMC at the December meeting as very likely.

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