$USDCHF EPIC 7 to 1 RETURNS
Fundamentals: CHF hasn’t been acting in traditional safe haven character, with global risk sentiment in the “off” position and CHF is weakening. Unsure why this is, but if you look at yield spread between treasuries and CH10 its been widening all year as treasury yields rally and CH10 yield is relatively unchanged on the year. jan2018 spread= 250bps & Oct spread = 320bps implying higher for this market. Coupled with that I wonder if theres a carry trade developing for this market, with Fed rates at 2.25% with outlook set to hike through 2019 past 3% and the Snb with rates at -0.75% also generating demand for this market.
Technical: However I like the technicals for this trade. 1.0050 is a huge resistance level and the reward for the trade is 7 to 1, taking profits along the way. I think due to the bullish factors for this market, generally stronger USD and weaker CHF id move my stop loss to breakeven quicker than normal.
Theres also the possibility that the resistance level may break to the upside in which case would look for bullish trade.