FXStreet (Edinburgh) – Strategist Piotr Matys at Rabobank reviews the prospects for the Russian currency ahead in the year.
Key Quotes
“When the ruble firmed beyond the 50-level against the US dollar, verbal interventions from the central bank and the government intensified to discourage market players from betting on an even strong ruble”.
“Throughout the second half of the year, we expect that the 50-handle will be a fairly strong barrier for USD/RUB as the CBR will continue to cut rates to deter carry traders”.
“Admittedly, the ruble is set to remain one of the highest-yielding EM currencies, but with the interest rate potentially falling below 10.00% in 15H2 from 12.50% now, the risk premium may not prove sufficient to stimulate ruble demand”.
“Especially if the fragile ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine collapses and/or Brent crude falls below USD 60/bbl”.
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)