In this screen cast I explore the Halloween Effect -which is a seasonal pattern – going back to 2012.

My overall position is that from 2012, the Halloween Effect is more probable, However, it is not 100%.

Statistical studies have been tracking this effect based on data largely based on a far more data before 2012 (but including the time up to the the present).

Markets have changed a whole lot since 2012 (a far more electronic world, ease of moving money around etc).

In addition the Halloween Effect has not been subject to geopolitical and macroeconomic forces that have piled up in the last 3 years.

The technical picture is one of fragility from Jan 2018.