Euro-zone trade surplus edged lower in March. And net trade seems likely to have had a negligible effect on GDP growth in Q1. The seasonally-adjusted trade surplus rose from €21.2bn in January to €22.0bn in February – the second highest level on record. But the country data already published for March suggest that the surplus dropped back again. The German and Dutch surpluses declined, while the French deficit widened. Based on this data, exports from the euro-zone rose by about 1.0% m/m, while imports increased by around 2.0%. This would bring the euro-zone’s trade surplus down to around €21.0bn. On the basis of the past relationship between the monthly trade value data and the quarterly trade volume data, this suggests that both export and import volumes flatlined in Q1 as a whole, meaning that net trade’s contribution to GDP growth fell from +0.2% points in Q4 to zero in Q1. Nevertheless, looking ahead, the fall in the euro is consistent with a pick-up in export growth later this year, according to Capital Economics.
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