Tuesday was supposed to be all about Arizona and Utah where voters will soon make their choice for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees.
Polls in the two states as well as Democratic caucuses in Idaho will of course be overshadowed by this morning’s terrorist attacks in Brussels, but this evening’s electoral drama will still be watched closely as the outcome in Utah will be key to determining whether Trump has a chance at reaching the 1,237 delegates he needs to avoid a contested convention in July.
“The most significant question looming over Tuesday’s contests is whether Ted Cruz can exceed 50 percent of the vote in Utah,” The New York Times writes. “If so, he would take all 40 of the state’s delegates and mitigate Donald J. Trump’s expected victory in Arizona, a state that allocates all 58 of its delegates to the top vote-getter.”
If Cruz falls short, that’s bad news for the “stop-Trump” crowd. In the event the senator can’t top the 50% threshold, the delegates will be awarded proportionally. The worry for Cruz is that John Kasich may just ride his Ohio momentum into Utah and capture enough of the vote to keep the Texas senator from walking away with all 40 delegates. In order to share the haul, a candidate must get at least 15%. The nightmare scenario for Cruz would be for Kasich to keep him under 50% and for Trump to breach the 15% mark. So watch for that.
(Cruz waits to speak on Saturday at a rally in Draper)
“A vote for John Kasich is a vote for Donald Trump,” Mitt Romney warned on Monday. As Politico notes, “Trump is on pace to get crushed in Utah, where the state’s strong Mormon contingent has shown little appetite for his boorish antics and inconsistent stances on social issues. And all that was before Trump questioned Romney’s Mormon faith — an intensely personal attack against the state’s favorite son.”
But again, the question isn’t whether Trump gets crushed in Utah. He will. The question is by how much. If he surprises, it will be a catastrophe for Cruz.
From RealClearPolitics:
As for Arizona, well, Cruz likely doesn’t stand a chance. “Voters can cast ballots [in the state] as early as 26 days before the election [which] most likely means that thousands of Republicans in the state voted for Senator Marco Rubio of Florida before he dropped out last week,” The Times continues. “[That] reduces the impact of any late shift in voters’ sentiment: Even if Mr. Cruz was able to win over Trump supporters in recent days, some of them might have already voted for Mr. Trump.” Here are the latest numbers out of Arizona again, courtesy of RealClearPolitics:
“The most certain outcome of the night is that Ted Cruz will win Utah’s Republicans-only closed caucuses, benefitting from a good organization, a deeply conservative state party, and the support of his closest ally in the Senate, Mike Lee, along with Governor Gary Herbert,” New York Magazine writes. But while “Trump is not exactly flourishing in Utah, it’s a different scene in Arizona, where he benefits from strong nativist sentiment among white voters and endorsements from former governor Jan Brewer and Maricopa County (that is, greater Phoenix) sheriff Joe Arpaio.”
Arizona polls close at 10 ET. Utah polls close at 11ET, but online voting will run until 1 a.m.
On the Democratic side (and we’ll pretend for a moment that anyone cares or that the ultimate outcome here is somehow in doubt), Hillary Clinton is looking to build on her rout of Bernie Sanders on Super Tuesday 3, when the former First Lady trounced the firebrand socialist, in the process moving closer to what now appears to be a foregone conclusion. “Clinton is aiming to rack up a higher delegate count than Sanders on the night — with Arizona’s 75 on the line carrying the potential to offset Sanders’ possible gains with Utah’s 33 delegates and Idaho’s 23,” CNN writes.
Politico sums it up as succinctly as possible: “But if the Vermont senator fails to win the big prize Tuesday — Arizona, where polls show him facing a double-digit deficit — his expected string of victories in the caucus states that follow won’t make a dent in Hillary Clinton’s daunting delegate lead or erase the impression that his campaign can’t win in states with diverse Democratic electorates.”
The takeaway: “Western Tuesday” is all about whether Ted Cruz can stay above 50% in Utah. That’s what everyone will be watching this evening. The rest is just noise barring some kind of dramatic twist of fate.
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Bonus: Here’s a look at how much the candidates raised and spent last month (via Bloomberg)
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