Western US Drought Expected To Worsen
There are some areas of abnormally dry areas East of the Rocky Mountains, but all of the United States West of the Rockies is expecting drought conditions to persist or worsen through the end of September.
Drought conditions continue to be worst in California, but the Western half of Nevada and the Southeastern portion of Oregon also face extreme drought conditions over the next several months.
Hot, dry weather West of the Rockies is forecast through the end of June, with temperatures averaging nine to 18 degrees above normal in Utah, Nevada, the Northern Rockies and perhaps even higher along the Eastern slope of the Cascades, according to the US Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions are no worse than “moderate” in small pockets East of the Rockies, all the way to the Atlantic Ocean.
Southern Florida and portions of 6 states in the Northeast continue to experience a moderate long-term drought, as do relatively small areas stretching from Canada to Mexico between the Rockies and the Mississippi River.
In San Francisco, a rainfall deficit of 31.51 ins has built up since Y 2011. That is more than a full year’s average rainfall for the Bay Area. It is worse in Santa Cruz, where the 4-yr rainfall deficit of 50.54 ins amounts to more than 160% of the area’s average annual rainfall.
There is some better news for California.
A stronger El Niño weather pattern is forming in the Pacific Ocean, and the latest consensus forecast gives El Niño a 90% chance of continuing in the Northern Hemisphere through the fall and about an 85% chance of continuing through the coming Winter months. A stronger El Niño event usually produces significantly wetter winters in Central and Southern California.
Stay tuned…
HeffX-LTN
Paul Ebeling
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