FXStreet (Bali) – Oil prices rose sharply after OPEC stated that it was willing to talk to other producers to achieve ‘fair prices’, notes the ANZ Research Team in Australia.
Key Quotes
Relative to a week ago at least – when markets were effectively in meltdown-mode – price action has settled down somewhat.
However, one gets the impression that despite this relative calm, markets remain on tenterhooks (another down-day in global equity markets and a modest lift in the VIX reinforce this nervousness).
“But what has also been developing into somewhat of a theme over the past few days has been the bounce in oil prices. Prices surged again overnight, with WTI and Brent prices now both up around 25% from lows hit last week.”
“It is always difficult to pinpoint the reasons for day-to-day movements, but certainly there are hints of a possible supply response due to low prices.”
“Overnight OPEC stated that it was ready to talk to other producers to achieve “fair prices”. This of course could be just a bit of politicking given the strategy to date looked to be all about market share.”
“But it does suggest that many producers are likely to be hurting at these levels. Central bankers (and bond markets) will be keeping a very close watch on developments given the impact that oil has been having on global inflation and inflation expectations.”
“But the oil market is not the only commodity where a supply response is arguably pending. Take dairy, where we are hearing anecdotes from NZ of cow culling and a cut back in supplementary feed use. Admittedly this is not shared by the likes of the US and Europe yet, where milk supply continues to increase.”
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