One day after a sliver of a bullish Gartman peeked out, when he announced that he was “slightly net long of equities“, it would appear that yesterday’s red close prompted the “world-renowned” commodity expert (according to his family relations at CNBC Fast Money), to do what he now tends to do on a daily if not hourly basis, and is back to being “cautious… perhaps defensive.”
First, this is what he said just yesterday morning:
We, here at TGL, are very, very, very slightly net long of equities, for we are long of gold in EUR and Yen denominated terms of course, but we’ve had those positions on for months in the case of the EUR and for years in the case of the Yen. Indeed, we do not consider those to be “equity” positions at all, but we have to mark them somewhere in our commentary and this is the only place that seems reasonable, and so they are marked here…. So, we’ve punted bullishly, but again by only a very small sum.
Shortly after this hit, stocks promptly dropped and closed in the red despite another inexplicable last minute jump in the S&P.
Maybe that is why as of this morning his bullish punt is no more, and instead has been replaced with “caution… perhaps very real defensiveness“. Here’s why:
we note that the CNN Fear & Greed Index, having risen late last week once again to 75… the level the creators of the Index have referred to as “Extreme Greed”… has fallen back from those highs and closed last evening at 70.
The Index has spent the past seveal weeks forging what appears to us to have become a material “top” of some very real consequence. It “peaked” last autumn near 75 before stocks, as measured by the S&P, fell from 2075 to 1800 in a matter of weeks, and it peaked early last year at or near 80 before the S&P fell from near 2100 to 1800 also. In this regard, perhaps caution…perhaps very real defensiveness… is a reaosnable [sic] path to be taken.
Could this be the time he is right? For now futures are green so early indications are not looking good.
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