The S&P 500 is less than 50 points away from 2,200. That number is notable: in addition to that being Goldman’s year end price target – for 2017 that is – it also the combination of two important digits: 17 and 130, which are what JPM thinks are the PE and EPS bogeys that the market is currently aiming for. It is also why JPM’s trading desk commentary now expects that the S&P500 will hit 2,200 in short notice.
From JPM’s Intraday update:
Market update – more of the same for this market. The 17x/$130 argument continues to resonate (that combination of numbers points to 2200). It’s still very, very early in the CQ2 season but the indications so are more positive than negative (AA, Daimler, PEP, Samsung, SIMO, STX, WDC, etc) and that is helping investors look past the earnings recession and is bolstering confidence in a ~$130 number for next year. In terms of macro news, there wasn’t a lot out in the last 12-18 hours. On Fri stocks rallied b/c of low bond yields and this week they are extending those gains despite bond weakness (i.e. yields are higher). For the first time in a while there is genuine evidence of a rotation trade underway w/money moving out of safe-haven areas and into cyclical ones. Investors are hesitant to embrace this trend wholeheartedly given all the recent head fakes and ahead of a busy month of central bank meetings. However, while the BOE (7/14) and BOJ (7/29) are expected to ease, policy expectations in aggregate are prob. too dovish (the ECB and FOMC are likely pretty happy w/the post-Brexit market reaction and don’t have any incentive to hint at further easing right now) and thus the risk for rates is for them to move higher in the coming weeks (which should help further a further safety vs. cyclical rotation).
2,200 it is then.
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