Today around 12:30 GMT, US Bureau of Labor statistics will initial jobless claims data. Market expectation is slight rise in jobless claims to 275,000 from previous 265,000. Continuing claims as of now stands at 2.228 million.
US labor market since 2008 crisis have improved substantially with unemployment rate hovering around 5.4% and latest NFP report seeing another 223,000 people being added to payroll.
However recent economic dockets suggest that recovery in US losing momentum, latest retail sales growing at 0.1% excluding autos and private employment as measured by ADP employment adding about 169,000 jobs compared to 200,000 expected.
40 years of pattern –
4 week average of initial jobless claims is shown in the chart from historical perspective with data dating back to 1970.
- As of now initial jobless claims is hovering around level seen in 1970s and for the past years this has been the area from where jobless claims has bounced back into recessionary territory.
- During 2006 boom period 4 week average of initial jobless claims fell to similar level around 290,000 before jumping above 600,000 by 2009 recession.
- In 2000, jobless claims fell around 280,000 level before bouncing to 480,000 post dot com bubble burst.
Similar has been seen for past 42 years, so the question stands will the jobless claims be able to break 42 years of pattern or fall victim once more over the next few years?
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com