Following last night's surprisingly large draw from API (-7.6mm vs +1.5mm exp), DOE reported a smaller 2.976mm draw (but still a draw). Cushing saw a bigger than expected (and API) build but Gasoline stocks rose less than expected (and API). Crude production fell modestly week-over-week, but hoveres around 8.5mm b/d. Crude prices dropped, then ramped towards $50…

 

API

  • Crude -7.6mm (+1.5mm exp)
  • Cushing +400k (+100k exp)
  • Gasoline +2mm (+500k exp)
  • Distillates -1.3mm

DOE

  • Crude -2.976mm (+1.5mm exp)
  • Cushing +569k (+100k exp)
  • Gasoline +222k (+500k exp)
  • Distillates -1.915mm

This is the 5th weekly draw in a row for Crude… at a time seasonally when inventories build…

 

US Crude inventories dropped back below 500mm…

 

But still a long way to go…

  • * Crude 147.1 million barrels above the five-year average for Sept. 30
  • * Gasoline 15.7 million barrels also above
  • * Distillates 25.5 million barrels also above

And on a week in which OPEC claimed to have agreed to a deal to cap production at some point in the future, US production slipped 0.35% on the week but remains stuck at around 8.5mm b/d…

 

The reaction was a kneejerk higher followed by weakness…

 

Followed by a rip to highs to test $50…

 

$50 remains the most-loved across Crude calls..

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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