US crude has posted small gains in the Friday session. Currently, WTI/USD futures are trading at $50.84 per barrel. Brent futures are trading at $51.79, as the Brent premium has narrowed to $0.95. On the release front, it’s a very quiet end to the week. The sole US event is a speech from FOMC member Daniel Tarullo.
Oil prices have shown strong movement this week. US crude rose on Wednesday, as crude inventories surprised with a large drawdown of 5.2 million barrels. The markets had predicted a surplus of 2.2 million. However, profit taking on Thursday pushed oil prices back down. On Friday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that an oil output agreement was needed in order to stabilize oil prices. Novak will meet with his Saudi Arabian counterpart on the weekend. OPEC members surprised analysts by reaching a tentative agreement to cap output back in September and are holding another meeting on November 30. Previous attempts by OPEC to set limits on each member have failed, so it’s questionable if the cartel will have more success this time around.
US jobless claims have sparkled in recent weeks, so there was some surprise as the key indicator climbed to 260 thousand last week, higher than the forecast of 251 thousand. This marked the first reading since August that the key indicator has not beat estimates. Still, the dollar didn’t lose any ground, as the 4-week daily average of jobless claims remains excellent. There was good news from the manufacturing front, as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index posted a strong gain of 9.7 points, easily beating the forecast of 5.2 points. Earlier in the week, US consumer inflation numbers were a mixed bag. CPI edged up to 0.3%, up from 0.2% a month earlier. This was the strongest gain since April. Core CPI went the opposite direction, slipping to 0.1%, down from 0.3% a month earlier. These numbers could have an important bearing on the Fed’s interest rate decision in December. Currently, a December rate hike is currently priced in at 68 percent, as market sentiment remains high that the Fed will press the rate trigger before the end of the year.
WTI/USD Fundamentals
Friday (October 21)
- 10:15 FOMC Member Daniel Tarullo Speaks
*All release times are EDT
*Key events are in bold
WTI/USD for Friday, October 21, 2016
WTI/USD October 21 at 8:10 EDT
Open: 50.65 High: 50.95 Low: 50.34 Close: 50.84
WTI USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 43.45 | 46.69 | 50.13 | 53.50 | 59.69 | 65.49 |
WTI/USD posted small losses in the Asian session but has reversed directions in European trade and posted gains
- 50.13 is providing support
- There is resistance at 53.50
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 50.13, 46.69, 43.45 and 38.38
- Above: 53.50, 59.69 and 65.49
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