US crude has posted small gains in the Wednesday session. In North American trade, WTI/USD futures are trading at $51.00 per barrel. Brent futures are trading at $52.25, as the Brent premium has narrowed to $1.25. On the release front, Building Permits jumped to 1.23 million, beating the forecast of 1.17 million. However, Housing Starts slipped to 1.05 million, well short of the forecast of 1.18 million. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at Crude Oil Inventories, with the estimate standing at 2.2 million. On Thursday, there are two major releases – the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and unemployment claims.
US construction numbers were a mixed bag on Wednesday. Building Permits impressed with a reading of 1.23 million, the highest monthly reading in 2016. The news was not as good from Housing Starts, which dropped sharply to 1.05 million in September, compared to 1.14 million a month earlier. This marked the weakest reading since May 2015. The plunge in residential construction may weigh on third quarter GDP, which will be released in late November.
On Tuesday, US consumer inflation numbers were mixed. CPI edged up to 0.3%, up from 0.2% a month earlier. This was the strongest gain since April. Core CPI went the opposite direction, slipping to 0.1%, down from 0.3% a month earlier. These numbers could have an important bearing on the Fed’s interest rate decision in December. Currently, a December rate hike is currently priced in at 64 percent. Meanwhile, US consumer spending impressed in September. Retail sales gained 0.5%, while core retail sales jumped 0.6%, as both key indicators rebounded from declines in August. PPI was steady at 0.3%, but the UoM Consumer Sentiment Index disappointed, dropping to 87.9 points and missing expectations. This marked the weakest reading since September 2015.
WTI/USD Fundamentals
Wednesday (October 19)
- 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.17M. Actual 1.23M
- 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.18M. Actual 1.05M
- 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 2.2M
- 14:00 US Beige Book
- 19:45 FOMC Member William Dudley Speaks
Upcoming Key Events
Thursday (October 20)
- 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 5.2
- 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 251K
*All release times are EDT
*Key events are in bold
WTI/USD for Wednesday, October 19, 2016
WTI/USD October 19 at 9:10 EDT
Open: 50.82 High: 51.11 Low: 50.73 Close: 51.00
WTI USD Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 43.45 | 46.69 | 50.13 | 53.50 | 59.69 | 65.49 |
WTI/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair posted small gains in the European session. WTI/USD is showing little movement in North American trade.
- 50.13 is providing support
- There is resistance at 53.50
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 50.13, 46.69, 43.45 and 38.38
- Above: 53.50, 59.69 and 65.49
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