Did it ever really matter what Yellen said?

 

To clear up any confusion, the market appears to have taken Yellen's speech as dovish with June and July rate-hike odds tumbling further and September rising to its hghest of the year…

 

A quick recap since the worst payrolls print in 6 years… Gold still leads and bonds are beating stocks but today's exuberance is clear…

 

Cash indices from Thursday's close are generally green but Nasdaq lost gains…

 

As S&P pushes to its highest intraday since Nov 2015…

 

All driven by a squeeze at the open and a squeeze on Yellen…

 

For the 6th day in a row, a sudden panic bid ramped stocks to 2,100 and slammed VIX…

 

BUT note that VIX closed higher on the day…

 

Bonds and FX remain decoupled from stocks' exuberance…

 

Treasury yields rose modestly on the day with very modest steepening in 2s30s (+1bp) but all remain notably below post-payrolls levels…

 

The US Dollar drifted lower after Yellen's hawkishly-dovish speech, despite JPY weakness…

 

Commodities all ended the day higher (gold, silver, and copper grouped with modest gains) but crude surged over 2% (again)…

 

The chaotic swings continued in WTI crude (unable to break $50 as Brent managed it today) as Nigeria disruptions sparked panic-buying and Yellen sold it off…

 

Which helped drag the Bloomberg Commodity Index into a bull market…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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