Market Roundup
- Fed’s Evans wants to wait until mid-2016 to raise rates; George sees risk in waiting.
- BOJ could cut to 2015 GDP f/c due to China slowdown – Nikkei.
- Greek junior coalition party leaders to shortly submit a proposal to creditors.
- Merkel rules out “haircut” on European loans to Greece.
- Germany’s Schaeuble: Greece needs to deliver concrete prior action for support.
- ECB’s Nowotny: Greek talks must produce strong outcome on Sunday for ECB support.
- IMF lowers 2015 global growth f/c to 3.3% from 3.5%, holds ’16 f/c at 3.8%.
- IMF warns about further USD appreciation, greater difficulties in China’s econ transition.
- US Initial Jobless Claims 297k, f/c 275k, 282K-prev (July 4 holiday seen a factor).
- CA House Starts, Annualized* Jun 202.8k, f/c 190.0k, 197K-previous.
- MX 12-Month Inflation Jun 2.87%, f/c 2.9%, 2.88%-prev, record low.
- Emergency Eurogroup planned for Saturday from 3 p.m. (1300 GMT).
Looking Ahead – Economic Data (GMT)
- –:–CN M2 Money Supply YY* Jun f/c 11%, 10.80%-previous
- –:– CN New Yuan Loans* Jun f/c 1050.0b, 900.8b-previous
- –:– CN Outstanding Loan Growth* Jun f/c 14%, 14.00%-previous
- –:– CN FX Reserves* Q2 f/c 3.75t, 3.730t-previous
- 23:50 JP Corp Goods Price MM* Jun f/c 0%, 0.30%-previous
- 23:50 JP Corp Goods Price YY* Jun f/c -2.3%, -2.10%-previous
- 01:30 AU Housing Finance* May f/c -3.5%, 1.00%-previous
- 01:30 AU Invest Housing Finance* May 2.60%-previous
- 02:00 JP TR IPSOS PCSI Jul 43.98-previous
- 02:00 CN TR IPSOS PCSI Jul 67.48-previous
- 02:00 AU TR IPSOS PCSI Jul 47.71-previous
- 05:00 JP Consumer Confidence. Index* Jun 41.4-previous
Looking Ahead – Events, Other Releases (GMT)
No Significant Events
Currencies Summary
EUR/USD
EUR/USD is supported around 1.0990 levels and currently trading at 1.1006 levels. It has made session high at 1.1068 and low at 1.0990 levels. The pair, failed to advance above daily resistance level at 1.1068 and retreated back towards 1.000 levels, as sellers stepped in. The political events in the coming days are likely to have a significant effect on movements of this pair. Traders are eagerly waiting for Alexis Tsipras to present new Greece proposals to EU officials today to reach a much needed deal on Sunday. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1070. To the downside, support levels are located 1.1000, 1.0915.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD is supported around 1.5325 levels and currently trading at 1.5381 levels. It has made session high at 1.5410 and low at 1.5340 levels. Currently the cable is trading at 1.5381 levels. Sterling bounced from a one-month low at late U.S session, drawing support from a British budget bill that was not as fiscally tight as many investors had expected. The pound is unmoved by the Bank of England’s decision to, keep its benchmark interest rate at the record low of 0.5 percent, as policymakers struggle with how to balance improving wage growth in Britain against more threatening signals from the global economy. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 1.5405. To the downside, support levels are located 1.5340, 1.5320. Overall trend of this pair remains bearish in the short term.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY is supported around 120.40 levels and currently trading at 121.26 levels. It has made session high at 121.61 and low at 120.17 levels. The pair is consolidating at 121.32 levels, and is set to reach 122.00 handle in the short term. The demand for Japanese Yen as safe heaven fell as Chinese stock rebounded after incurring significant losses on Wednesday. Shanghai’s CSI300,SSEC shares 6% gain was enough for restoring investor’s confidence after and month long headlines dominated by Greece crisis. In late New York trading, the dollar was up 0.5 percent against the yen at 121.32. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 121.60. To the downside, support level is located at 120.40. The pair gained almost 80 pips today and the bearish sentiment for this pair is set to continue further towards 120.00 and later 119.80.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF is supported around 0.9460 levels and currently trading at 0.9485 levels. It has made session high at 0.9495 and low at 0.9465 levels. The pair is trying to break resistance level at 0.9492. The greenback has appreciated 0.3 percent against the Swiss Franc due to broader demand for US dollar. Swiss franc typically rally when there is financial or geopolitical stress as investors seek out safer and more liquid investments, but worries about Greece eased somewhat as EU is awaiting reform proposals from Greece. In the early U.S session US labor department released US Jobless data which printed 297k actual against previous 275k. To the upside, immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9490. To the downside, support level is located 0.9460.
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