A yuuge surge in stocks – amid collapsing earnings and GDP expectations – appears to have enabled a modest bounce off 2-year lows for consumer confidence. The Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence increased to 96.2 in March from 94 a month earlier – but still below January's levels. The bounce was driven purely by "hope" as expectations for the future rose and current conditions dropped to 4-month lows. At the same time Gallup's consumer confidence survey plumbes new depths to its lowest since 2015.
For now, Stocks helped to blind 'consumers' to the economic collapse…
“Consumer confidence increased in March, after declining in February,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.
“Consumers’ assessment of current conditions posted a moderate decline, while expectations regarding the short-term turned more favorable as last month’s turmoil in the financial markets appears to have abated. On balance, consumers do not foresee the economy gaining any significant momentum in the near-term, nor do they see it worsening.”
And while the below-the-surface data is not as bullish, Gallup's most recent survey of Economic Confidence shows more weakness.
This is what the direct polling service found for March economic confidence:
Americans' confidence in the economy dipped last week, with the U.S. Economic Confidence Index averaging -13 for the week ending March 27. This score is down from -9 the previous week.
Since July, Americans' economic confidence has remained fairly steady, apart from a couple of exceptions in late August and mid-January. Before falling back to -13 last week, index scores in recent weeks began to show signs of improving confidence. The terrorist attacks in Brussels last week could have shaken Americans' confidence in the long-term stability of the global or U.S. economy. Confidence remains below where it was in early 2015, when weekly index scores were positive or just slightly negative.
Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans rate current economic conditions and whether they feel the economy is improving or getting worse. The index has a theoretical maximum of +100 if all Americans say the economy is doing well and improving, and a theoretical minimum of -100 if all Americans say the economy is doing poorly and getting worse.
For the week ending March 27, the current conditions score of -5 was on the lower end of the range for this component so far in 2016. This score was based on 24% of Americans rating the current economy as "excellent" or "good," and 29% rating it as "poor." The economic outlook score was -20, resulting from 38% of U.S. adults saying the economy is "getting better" and 58% saying it is "getting worse." The -20 score represents a six-percentage-point drop from the prior week's reading of -14 on this component.
Bottom Line
The attacks in Brussels cast a dark shadow over last week, which could perhaps have tainted Americans' optimism in their views of more than just their physical safety — such as their country's financial stability. The Dow Jones industrial average also suffered in the aftermath of the attacks but has since begun to recover.
Meanwhile, the low gas prices Americans have enjoyed for months have started to climb back up. Although Americans largely stashed the savings they received at the pump in recent months, that doesn't make saying goodbye to low prices any easier. It's quite possible that Americans had become so accustomed to cheap gas that any sign of a price increase could influence their assessment of the economy. However, it is unclear whether Americans expect seasonal changes in gas prices or if they attribute those increases to a problem with the economy.
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