Janet – you have a problem. Following the all-clear from China, soaring stock prices, and ‘stability’ in oil, Empire Fed business conditions just hit a 17-month high. In other words, The Fed is gonna need some bigger ‘turmoil’ excuses or defending “no rate hikes” is going to look a whole lot more political than their independence would suggest.
Everything is awesome in New York too…
As The NY Fed notes:
Business activity expanded for New York manufacturing firms for the first time in over a year, according to the April 2016 survey. After remaining in negative territory for seven months, the general business conditions index rose to a reading slightly above zero last month, and climbed nine more points to reach 9.6 in April. Thirty-one percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 22 percent reported that conditions had worsened. After a steep gain last month, the new orders index edged up two points to 11.1, pointing to an increase in orders. The shipments index edged lower but, at 10.2, still signaled a modest increase in shipments. The unfilled orders and delivery time indexes both came in close to zero. The inventories index was -4.8, indicating that inventory levels were slightly lower.
The prices paid index rose sixteen points to 19.2, suggesting that input prices increased at a significantly faster pace than last month. The prices received index, up nine points to 2.9, showed a small increase in selling prices. The index for number of employees edged up to 2.0, indicating that employment levels remained fairly steady, and the average workweek index was unchanged at 2.0, a sign that hours worked remained largely the same.
Sp surging prices, better jobs, no global turmoil – what are you waiting for Janet?
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