FXStreet (Mumbai) – Analysts at TD Securities note key events from Asia to be reported in the week ahead which may have major impact on the Asian currencies.
Key Quotes:
“The RBA Governor speech on Wed is crucial as it is delivered to ‘all’ financial market participants.”
“This annual speech to all financial market participants tends to send a clear message, so is a must-see/read event. Topic could be AUD, credit, housing, global risks…..”
Another “marquee event is Q2 CPI on Wed. Petrol will boost headline CPI print and will be ignored. Our Inflation Gauge for the trimmed measure was soft in annual terms, but we are only marginally on the soft side of consensus. A core print of +0.3% or below (i.e. annual at 2% or below) will get the markets pricing a November cut, and a risk of an August cut).”
“RBNZ Thu and -25bp to 3% is baked in, so risks are rising for a “surprise” -50bp to shock the NZD into an even lower trading range. The odds that the RBNZ under-delivers are now rising. An OCR Review means no updated forecasts or press conference.”
“We think a lack of updated forecasts and press conference limits the opportunity to get -50bp this time.”
Friday’s trade balance: “Falling commodity prices and the rising NZD are expected to eat into the usually seasonal healthy surplus. One analyst expects a deficit and certainly cannot be ruled out.”
From China, “We are well below early consensus on this flash manufacturing PMI estimate.”
“We see the Shanghai market “crash” dampening this survey, but the market doesn’t share our concerns. Even if we are overly pessimistic, at least we prefer to be on the weak side of consensus, with the (early) market median looking for a pickup to 49.7.”
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)