Market Roundup
- USD net longs rise in latest week.
- Japan MoF Company survey – Q1 CAPEX +7.3% y/y, ex-software +5.8% q/q, recurring profits +0.4% y/y, sales -0.5%.
- Japan May manufacturing PMI – final 50.9, same as flash, April 49.9.
- ECB VP Constancio- ECB policies working must persist with QQE.
- SNB Chair Jordan – CHF significantly overvalued, should weaken, ready to intervene in markets if needed.
- China SIC Fan Jianping- Economy may steady later this year.
- China May HSBC manufacturing PMI – final 49.2, flash 49.1, sub-50 3-mos now, April 48.9.
- China May official manufacturing PMI 50.2, as eyed, April 50.1.
- Australia May PMI +4.3 pts to 52.3, first expansion in 6-mos, lower AUD helps.
- Australia May TD/MI inflation index +0.3% m/m, +1.4% y/y, TM +0.4%, +1.3%.
- Australia April bldg approvals -4.4% m/m -2.0% eyed, private-sector houses +4.7%.
- Australia April RPData home prices -0.9% m/m, 1st fall in 6-mos, April +0.8%.
- Australia Q1 business inventories +0.4% q/q, company gross operating profits +0.2%, +0.1% and +0.5% eyed, pre-tax profits +12.5%.
Economic Data Ahead
- (0230 ET/0630 GMT) Sweden May manufacturing PMI, 55.0 eyed; last 55.7.
- (0300 ET/0700 GMT) Norway May manufacturing PMI, 50.1 eyed; last 50.5.
- (0315 ET/0715 GMT) Spain May manufacturing PMI, 54.5 eyed; last 54.2.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Switzerland May manufacturing PMI, 48.4 eyed; last 47.9.
- (0330 ET/0730 GMT) Sweden April retail sales, +0.5% m/m eyed; last +0.7%, +4.6% y/y.
- (0345 ET/0745 GMT) Italy May manufacturing PMI, 53.6 eyed; last 53.8.
- (0350 ET/0750 GMT) France May manufacturing PMI, 49.3 eyed; flash 49.3.
- (0355 ET/0755 GMT) Germany May manufacturing PMI, 51.4 eyed; flash 51.4.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Euro Zone May manufacturing PMI, 52.3 eyed; flash 52.3.
- (0400 ET/0800 GMT) Norway April credit indicator, +5.8% y/y eyed; last +5.8%.
- (0430 ET/0830 GMT) UK May manufacturing PMI, 52.5 eyed; last 51.9.
- (0800 ET/1200 GMT) Germany May HICP – prelim, unchanged m/m, +0.6% y/y eyed; last -0.1%, +0.3%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US April personal income, +0.3% m/m eyed; last unchanged.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US April personal consumption, +0.2% m/m eyed; last +0.4%.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) US April core PCE price index, +0.2% m/m eyed; last +0.1% m/m, +1.3% y/y.
- (0900 ET/1300 GMT) BE Q1 GDP revised; prelim +0.3% q/q.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) US May Markit mfg PMI – final; prelim 53.8.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US May ISM manufacturing PMI, 52.0 eyed; last 51.5, new orders 53.5.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) US April construction spending, +0.8% m/m eyed; last -0.6%.
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) US April Dallas Fed PCE index; last +2.0%.
Key Events Ahead
- New Zealand, Singapore and Thailand market holidays.
- N/A Riksbank executive board meeting, France BTF, Netherlands DTC auctions.
- (0905 ET/1305 GMT) Boston Fed Rosengren speech at Hartford breakfast conference.
FX Recap
EUR/USD is supported above 1.0900 levels and currently trading at 1.0948 levels. It has made intraday high at 1.0987 and low at 1.0929 levels. Pair is shrugging off potential positive news out of Greece over the weekend, following Greek Interior Minister comments about the country’s willingness to reach a compromise with international lenders this week. Today Germany, France and Euro zone manufacturing PMI data will be main focus. Initial support is seen at 1.0859 and resistance is seen around 1.1041 levels.USD/JPY is trading above 124.00 levels and posted a high of 124.33 levels. It has made intraday low at 124.05 and currently trading at 124.08 levels. Today Japan released capital spending data with positive numbers but the pair shaved-off gains and trades directionless, although the greenback remains supported on divergent monetary policy outlooks between the US and the Japan. The likelihood of raising US rates and the BOJ’s ongoing ultra loose policy continued widening interest differentials between the dollar and the yen. Near term resistance is seen at 124.85 levels and support is seen at 123.22 levels.GBP/USD is supported around at $1.5300. It made an intraday high at 1.5299 and low at 1.5258 levels. Today UK will release manufacturing PMI data, which gives further directions to the parity. Initial support is seen at 1.5258 (today’s low) and resistance is seen around 1.5371 levels.USD/CHF is supported below 0.9450 levels and trading at 0.9418 levels and made intraday low at 0.9383 and high at 0.9431 levels. In today’s trading session, Switzerland’s manufacturing PMI data will be main focus. Near term support is seen at 0.9285 levels and resistance is seen at 0.9571 levels.
AUD/USD is supported below 0.7700 levels and trading at 0.7661levels. It has made intraday high at 0.7662 levels and low at 0.7626 levels. Pair has jumped over 20 pips to a session high of 0.7662 after the Chinese HSBC PMI came in line with expectations at 49.2 for May, as slight improvement of 0.1 bp from last month report. The RBA monetary policy meeting is due on Tuesday, with broad-based consensus for a no change in policies, despite there are obvious risk of a more dovish tone following last week’s capex. Today Australia released Building approvals data with negative numbers. Initial support is seen at 0.7619 and resistance at 0.7752 levels.
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