Jobs added in June beat estimates by a mile
The Australian economy added a massive 50.9k jobs in June, well above economists’ forecasts of a 17.0k increase and the biggest monthly gain since November. Adding to the positive headline, the vast majority of the jobs were in the full-time category at 41.2K, while just 9.7k part-time jobs were added. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.4%, even with a higher participation rate of 65.7% from 65.5% in May. Whichever way you cut it, it was a very strong report.
The kneejerk reaction in markets was that the Aussie rallied across the board, gaining as much as 0.59% versus the dollar and 0.55% versus the yen. AUD/USD now stands at 0.7427. Australian equities were also given a boost, rising 0.2% on the day.
AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart
Source: Oanda fxTrade
Japan’s trade balance swings back to surplus
Japan recorded a trade surplus in June, though mostly caused by a reduction in imports. Exports rose 6.7% y/y against a forecast of +7.0% while imports rose a below-estimate 2.5% y/y. Economists were expecting a 5.3% gain. As a result, the trade surplus expanded to JPY721.4 billion from a deficit of JPY580.5 billion in May. There wasn’t much of a reaction in currency markets though USD/JPY looks set for a second day of declines after peaking at a six-month high yesterday.
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UK retail sales boosted by World Cup fever?
UK retail sales for June will be the main event for the European data calendar today with economists expecting a 3.9% y/y increase. Bear in mind the second half of the month saw the start of the FIFA World Cup so, if anything, the risk could be a surprise to the upside. The US session has a relatively bare slate, with weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey on tap. Fed’s Quarles is also scheduled to speak.
The full MarketPulse data calendar is here: https://www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/
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