“Attention will now turn to releases later in the week: May employment data (Wednesday), June retail sales (Thursday) and the services and manufacturing PMIs (Friday). Our expectation is that the PMIs will show a sharp post-Brexit weakening, with our economists forecasting the composite index at its lowest level since December 2012.

On balance we think deterioration in activity data and rising expectations for BoE easing should push GBPUSD lower in the near-term, even if the bulk of the Brexit impact on the GBP is likely behind us.

We are short GBPUSD from 1.3350 targeting 1.2800″.

*BNPP is short GBP/USD from July 14.

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