Having collapsed back to the not-so-ebullient reality of ‘hard’ macro data, ‘soft’ surveys have staged another rebound recently.
And today’s Chicago PMI did not disappoint – soaring to 64.1 (against expectations of a drop from May’s 62.7 to 60.0).
This print was above all expectations (forecast range 58 – 62.7 from 28 economists surveyed) and confirmed the 12th month in a row of business expansion.
Under the hood:
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Prices paid rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
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New orders rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
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Employment rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
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Inventories rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
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Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
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Production rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
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Order backlogs rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
Production growth slowing as prices accelerate – stagflation anyone?
So, dead cat bounce of hope? Or a new renaissance in the recovery?
All the time the yield curve is crushing new lows, we suspect the former, not the latter.
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