Following February's dismal drops across the board in Durable Goods, expectations were high for a March rebound. However, the mean-reverters were greatly disappointed as Orders rose just 0.8% MoM (missing expectations of a 1.9% surge) off a revised lower print, pushing the YoY change back into the red. Core Durables Goods Orders fell YoY for the 14th consecutive month – a streak never seen in 60 years outside of a broad US recession. Capital Goods Orders (0.0% vs +0.6% exp) and Shipments (+0.3% vs +0.9% exp) both missed and were both revised lower. Not a pretty picture…
The headline Durable Goods Orders printed back in the red YoY…
But a 14th consecutive monthly drop in YoY Core Durable Goods Orders has never happened outside of a recession…
It really is different this time.
Most notably, New Orders for defense aircraft and parts surged 65.7% to $6.1 billion – So not even war can keep the US economy afloat any more!!
Finally, the all important core capex series, or nondefense capital goods ex aircraft was unchanged for the month, and printed a 2.4% decline from a year ago. This too represents 14 consecutive months of core capex declines, something else that has never happened outside of a recession.
Charts: Bloomberg
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