The next ECB meeting should be one of the easiest for the Governing Council in many months. QE has been announced and pre-committed until September 2016; the growth outlook is getting brighter, including an improvement in the credit cycle, while inflation surprised to the upside for the first time in many months. The very strong performance of the QE program in its first month also appears to have dealt with concerns regarding the ECB’s ability to deliver on the program size. Further EUR/USD weakening is expected in the months ahead, but likely more gradual and more volatile than in the recent trend.“We think Draghi will reassure markets that an early QE tapering and further cut in depo rate are unlikely in next ECB meeting. We also expect the ECB to announce changes to the list of SSAs eligible for PSPP & more explanations on the lending programs.” – BofA Merrill Lynch said in a report on Monday
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