Euro-area GDP growth in Q1-2015 outpaced the US and the UK: the picture is emerging of a domestic-demand-driven recovery, supported by structural changes (banks have cleaned up their balance sheets, governments have cut fiscal deficits and – in some countries – have reformed labour and product markets), external stimulus (lower oil prices, a more competitive euro – EUR) and a cyclical upswing. Standard Chartered says they remain positive on the outlook, but anticipate that some headwinds will offset the stimulus from European Central Bank (ECB) quantitative easing (QE). Oil prices are rising and will likely start to take headline inflation back towards target later in H2, muting consumer spending. “Some ECB Governing Council members may argue for QE to be cut short, but we expect bond-buying to continue at least until September 2016 and probably beyond: core inflation is likely to remain low, given the output gap”, added Standard Chartered.
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