FXStreet (Guatemala) – Sean Callow analyst at Westpac banking Corporation noted the key events for the day ahead.
Key Quotes:
“The Australian government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) is due at 1pm Syd/10am Sing/HK. The main focus will be on the extent of the deterioration in the budget position over 4 years. Most talk is that wider deficits will total in the high AUD30bn area, with Westpac looking for AUD36bn. The main drivers will be weaker commodity prices and lower trend growth, as population growth slows. We look for the 2016/17 GDP growth forecast to be trimmed 0.25ppt to 3% and both 2017/18 and 2018/19 to be cut from 3.5% to 3%. This year’s deficit is likely to be about $4bn wider, at -$39bn, -2.4%/GDP. Net debt should reach AUD350bn by 2018/19, 18.4% of GDP (this is federal govt debt only). Ratings agencies should receive this outlook calmly but obviously all the news in the release will be on the weak side.
The RBA Dec meeting minutes will be released at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. The cash rate was left unchanged at 2.0% as was widely anticipated. In the statement, the RBA maintained its key policy conclusion: “Members also observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand”. Discussion around the AUD, labour market and consumer will be of interest though overall what was most notable about the statement on the day was how little changed it was from Nov, including very neutral language on AUD.
UK Nov CPI is expected at -0.1% m/m and 0.1% y/y, as food and energy prices as well as the strong GBP continue to weigh. Core CPI is seen ticking up to 1.2% y/y. The Germany Dec ZEW survey is likely to show expectations continue to bounce from Oct lows to 15.0.
NZX dairy futures are pointing to a 7% bounce at the GlobalDairyTrade auction. Results will come out as usual during the Lon/NY session.
The NY Fed’s Dec Empire State business survey should improve but remain contractionary at -7.0 as external headwinds still to drag on the manufacturing sector. Energy prices and the impact of a strong US dollar in imports continue to restrain CPI. Market median for the Nov headline is flat m/m and 0.4% y/y, and a robust 0.2% m/m and 2.0% y/y excluding food and energy. The Dec NAHB housing market index should remain at historically high levels, with 63% of builders seeing better conditions.”
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