Disaffected Hillary snowflakes at colleges and universities all around the country, many of whom surely cried themselves to sleep last night, woke up this morning to some of the best news they’ve received in weeks. According to a new study by the University of New Hampshire Carsey School of Public Policy, white people are dying off faster than ever in the U.S. Moreover, the biggest declines are coming in key swing states like FL and PA. Even better, the study expects the “natural decrease” of whites to accelerate in the future.
In 2014, deaths among non-Hispanic whites exceeded births in more states than at any time in U.S. history. Seventeen states, home to 121 million residents or roughly 38 percent of the U.S. population, had more deaths than births among non-Hispanic whites (hereafter referred to as whites) in 2014, compared to just four in 2004. When births fail to keep pace with deaths, a region is said to have a “natural decrease” in population, which can only be offset by migration gains. In twelve of the seventeen states with white natural decreases, the white population diminished overall between 2013 and 2014.
This research is the first to examine the growing incidence of white natural decrease among U.S. states and to consider its policy implications. Our analysis of the demographic factors that cause white natural decrease suggests that the pace is likely to pick up in the future.
Here are some of the the “Key Findings” from the study:
At the national level, the White birth-to-death ratio has been shrinking aggressively since the “great recession” started in 2008. By the time 2014 rolled around the rate had declined to near parity. Researchers attribute the trends to “declining fertility due to the Great Recession” and an aging baby boomer population.
Over the last several decades, demographers have noted the growing incidence of natural decrease in the United States. More widespread natural decrease results from declining fertility due to the Great Recession, and the aging of the large baby boom cohorts born between 1946 and 1964. This senior population is projected to expand from nearly 15 percent of the total population in 2015 to nearly 24 percent in 2060. Much of this aging baby boom population is white, and so white mortality is growing. Together, growing white mortality and the diminishing number of white births increase the likelihood of more white natural decrease.
Meanwhile, white populations in the key swing states of FL and PA have been shrinking for years while NV and AZ also joined the club in 2010 and 2012, respectively.
And while white populations are declining the Southwest and Northeast, the Midwest populations are still growing…but no real problem there as those are Republican strongholds anyway.
White natural decrease states are widely dispersed, with clusters in the South, West, and Northeast regions. States with minimal white natural increase are also widely distributed, though they are often in close proximity to the natural-decrease states. States with high natural increase are concentrated in the Mountain West and the West North Central regions but also include Texas, Louisiana, Indiana, and Virginia.
So it’s not all bad news for democrats…if Hillary can hold out for a couple more election cycles, and suppress her “pneumonia” flare ups, she may just be unbeatable.
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