While the world is focused on the aftermath of the Brexit vote, another surprise to the European status quo was just served thanks to Spain’s parliamentary elections, where according to the just released exit polls…
LATEST: Table comparing two exit polls with actual result from December:https://t.co/NtMMNlbvTR pic.twitter.com/bAAn4PTZ9t
— The Spain Report (@thespainreport) June 26, 2016
… the country’s two main progressive parties, the 137-year-old Socialists and the anti-establishment group Podemos, most likely have won a majority of seats in parliament according to early exit polls.
Podemos won 91 to 95 seats compared with 71 at the last vote in December while the Socialists won 81 to 85 seats compared with 90, according to the poll by Sigma Dos published by the state broadcaster. Parties need 176 lawmakers for a majority in the 350-seat chamber. Caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party won the most seats with 117 to 121, though the second- and third-placed groups have both ruled out supporting him. The liberals of Ciudadanos fell to 26 to 30 seats compared with 40 last time.
The election is perhaps most notable for the latest confirmation of total apathy: while 37 million people are eligible to participate, barely half of them had voted by 6 p.m. in Madrid, the lowest turnout on record.
As a reminder, this is the second election following a previous one in December when the result was deadlocked, preventing any single party or alliance from claiming a majority. Opinion polls had suggested the parliament that emerges this time will be just as fragmented as the previous one. Four big parties and six smaller regional ones are likely to win seats in the 350-strong assembly, none of them coming close to a majority.
The center-right People’s Party (PP) looks set to be the biggest party again, with around 120 seats. But its natural coalition partner, the liberal Ciudadanos (“Citizens”), appears likely to win only 30 seats or less, far worse than polls had expected, leaving them well short of the 176 needed for a majority.
In theory, the rise of Unidos Podemos (“Together We Can”), a leftist alliance led by Podemos, could offer a way out. The 90+ seats it is expected to win, combined with around 80 for the Socialist Party (PSOE), would be close to a majority. Support from some of the regional parties could enable them to form a government.
That said, it all depends on the socialists: analysts believe that the 137-year-old Socialist Party would prefer to form a ‘grand coalition’ with the PP, led by the acting prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, or give passive support to a minority PP government, rather than combine with a group that threatens their existence, according to Reuters.
“This is a crucial time for the left. Our time has come. We have an opportunity for change,” said Carlos Martinez, a retired administrative clerk who cast his ballot for Unidos Podemos in the Arganzuela neighborhood, in the south of Madrid. However, the 77-year-old, who voted in December for the former communists of United Left, now part of Unidos Podemos, said the anti-austerity alliance might find it hard to govern because other parties may coalesce to block it.
Ironically, such a scenario would have echoes of Greece, where a long-established center-left party, PASOK, joined a conservative-led government in 2012, only to find itself subsequently humiliated by the rise to power of the far-left Syriza party — which is close to Podemos.
It is not clear what impact the result of the British referendum will have on the Spanish election.
One thing for now appears clear: there is little risk of Spexit, at least in the immediate future. Iglesias, whose core support comes from well-educated young people shut out of the labor market, said the Brexit vote was a sign of the profound reform the EU needs. “Nobody would leave a fair and united Europe,” he said. “We have to change Europe.”
Good luck.
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