FXStreet (Bali) – Yujiro Goto, Global FX Strategist at Nomura, notes that better-than-expected industrial production in Japan should reduce the chances of an imminent easing.
Key Quotes
“September industrial production unexpectedly increased by +1.0% m-o-m (Consensus: -0.6%). Industrial production in Q3 is still estimated to have declined by 1.3% q-o-q, for the second quarter in a row.”
“However, the strong recovery in September production is likely to be a positive outcome for the BOJ. More importantly, companies also maintained strong production plans for October on average (+4.1% m-o-m), even though the plans were on average slightly downgraded from +4.4% the previous month.”
“These positive signs in the manufacturing sector should encourage the BOJ to maintain its optimistic view of the economic recovery into Q4.”
“Better-than-expected production will ease concerns about the downside economic risk among BOJ officials, reducing the chances of an imminent easing, in our view.”
“After strong September production data and the hawkish FOMC, the BOJ is still more likely to disappoint the market than positively surprise, while dip-buying demand will likely appear below 120.”
“Governor Kuroda and the BOJ’s communications via the outlook report and press conference will be important for midterm JPY weakness momentum, after the likely knee-jerk JPY appreciation.”
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