The US election this Tuesday is the main focus of the week. The key economic release this week is University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week.
The timing of poll closings on election night will be important for investors as markets adjust expectations in real-time. Exit polls will start rolling in from 7pm ET (perhaps a bit earlier), and will be staggered until around midnight. The outcome could be apparent much earlier in the evening with key battleground states like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, and Pennsylvania all likely to release results by around 8pm. Conversely, a closer race implies a longer timeframe until the winner is known, and therefore, higher volatility on election night.
Elsewhere”
- In the Eurozone, the main events include German Factory Orders and Industrial Production as well as the Ecofin meeting starting on Tuesday.
- In the UK, we have House Prices, Industrial Production and the Trade Balance.
- In Australia, the main releases concern confidence indicators and Home Loans.
- In New Zealand, our focus is on the RBNZ meeting where we expect a 25bp cut.
- In Japan, beyond BoJ Minutes, we get Current Account, Machine Orders and PPI.
- In Canada, it’s a light week with only housing data and BoC speakers on schedule.
- In China, the main releases include trade balance, CPI/PPI and money supply.
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A day by day breakdown of key events:
This morning in Europe we’re kicking off in Germany where factory orders disappointed dropping by 0.6%, well below the expected 0.3% increase, followed thereafter by September retail sales for the Euro area and also the Sentix investor confidence reading. Over in the US it’s fairly quiet datawise with only the labour market conditions index for October and consumer credit data for September due. Also due out is the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey so that’s worth keeping an eye on. China also releases the October foreign reserves data at some stage.
It’ll be China who get things started on Tuesday with the October trade data released. In Japan we’ll also get the latest leading index reading. During the European session the focus will be on Germany again where the September trade data and industrial production print is due. Trade data for France is also out tomorrow while there are important releases in the UK too with the September industrial and manufacturing production reports. Over in the US the NFIB small business optimism reading will be due along with the September JOLTS report.
Turning to Wednesday, it’s once again China where the early focus will be with the October CPI and PPI reports due out. During the European session we’ll get France business sentiment and UK trade data while the European Commission will also release its latest economic forecasts. It’s quiet in the US on Wednesday with just the final revisions to wholesale inventories and trade sales for September due.
Moving to Thursday, there’s not much to report from the morning session in Europe aside from industrial production and wages data in France. It’s similarly quiet in the US with just initial jobless claims and the Monthly Budget Statement due out.
Friday is also fairly quiet for data. In Germany we’ll get the final October CPI revisions while in the US we’ll get a first look at the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. Friday is also Veterans Day in the US meaning that bond markets will be closed, but stock markets remain open.
Meanwhile, there’s also some Fedspeak this week with Evans speaking twice on Tuesday, Kashkari on Wednesday, Williams and Bullard on Thursday and finally Fischer on Friday. Another potentially interesting event worth highlighting comes today (at 3.30pm GMT) where the UK Attorney General Jeremy Wright is due to make a statement to the House of Commons about the government’s reaction to the High Court ruling last week. Questions from lawmakers are expected to follow. Finally earnings season winds down with just 30 S&P 500 companies reporting and 91 Stoxx 600 companies due to report.
Finally, focusing only on the US, here is Goldman’s recap of key events:
Monday, November 7
- 10:00 AM Labor market conditions index, October (last -2.2)
- 02:00 PM Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, 2016Q4: The Fed will release its quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. The 2016Q3 release showed further easing in lending standards on residential loans but tightening in lending standards on commercial real estate loans. In past research, we have found the survey to be a valuable predictor of upcoming business investment growth.
Tuesday, November 8
- U.S. Presidential Election: The 2016 US presidential election will take place on Tuesday. Election results will gradually be released as polls close. Networks will not call a state until the state’s polls close.
- 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism index, October (consensus 94.1, last 94.1)
- 07:45 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will take part in a Q&A on the economy and policy at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. No media Q&A is expected. Recently, President Evans said that he sees three rate increases as likely between now and the end of next year.
- 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, September (consensus 5,469, last 5,433): The JOLTS measure of job openings declined modestly in August after approaching cyclical highs in July. Consensus expects job openings to edge up in September.
- 12:20 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will participate in a Q&A at UBS. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
Wednesday, November 9
- 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, September (consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%): Consensus expects wholesale inventories to rise modestly in September.
- 01:30 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will take part in a fireside chat in Eau Claire, Wisconsin. Audience Q&A is expected.
- 09:00 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will give a speech on the U.S. economic outlook at the University of San Francisco. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
Thursday, November 10
- 09:15 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will give a talk on the economy and monetary policy at Commerce Bank in St. Louis, Missouri. Audience and media Q&A is expected.
- 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 5 (GS 255k, consensus 260k, last 265k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 29 (consensus 2,020, last 2,026k): We expect initial jobless claims to decrease to 255k from 265k. Last week, claims rose by more than expected and were likely affected by temporary auto plant shutdowns particularly in Missouri and Kentucky. Initial claims in states affected by Hurricane Matthew continued to normalize. Consensus expects continuing jobless claims to edge down further after declining to a new post-crisis low last week.
- 02:00 PM Monthly budget statement, October (consensus -$81.9bn, last +$33.4bn): Consensus expects the federal budget balance to decline to -$81.9bn in October.
Friday, November 11
- 09:00 AM Vice Chair Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will give a speech on “U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Economy” via video conference at the Central Bank of Chile’s 20th annual conference. Last week, Vice Chair Fischer reiterated the FOMC’s view that recent economic data showed that the case for a rate hike has strengthened.10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, November preliminary (GS 88.0, consensus 87.5, last 87.2): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to edge up to 88.0 in the November preliminary estimate, after the index declined to 87.2 in the final estimate for October.
Source: DB, BofA, GS
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