FXStreet (Córdoba) – According to analysts from Danske Bank, next week seems unlikely to make history. Among the most important events is the Bank of England meeting.
Key Quotes:
“In the US, there are only a few important figures left ahead of the next FOMC meeting on 15-16 December. The most important release next week is retail sales in November due on Friday, which will be watched closely to see if there is any sign of weakness in private consumption.”
“In the UK, the main event is the December meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Thursday. Lying in between the ECB meeting and the Fed, we think this meeting will be crucial for our call that the BoE will hike in February. After the last meeting in November it became clear that the strong GBP was a larger concern for the BoE than we had thought. (…) We expect the Bank Rate and the stock of purchased assets to stay unchanged at 0.50% and GBP375bn, respectively. With respect to the rate decision, we think the vote will be unchanged at 8-1.”
“We’re heading for a busy week in China on the data front. We kick off Monday with FX reserve data. (…) On Tuesday the trade balance will give further information on exports. There have been some signs of a small recovery lately following a big decline over the summer. On Wednesday CPI inflation for November is released. We look for a rise of 1.4% y/y in line with consensus, up from 1.3% y/y in October. Inflation is not really an issue at the moment in China. If anything, the government is worried about deflationary pressures from overcapacity and falling producer prices, which adds to the pressure to continue gradual rate cuts.”
“The euro area next week starts off with the release of German industrial production for October. We expect another month of weakness based on declines in factory orders, as there has recently been a lag from factory orders to industrial production (…) On Monday, we also get data for the December Sentix investor confidence. On the back of the rebound in the November figure, we expect this to continue and forecast an increase in December as economic data in general have been better than feared lately, indicating that the recovery is back on track.
“On Tuesday, GDP figures for the euro area will be released, where we expect growth of 0.3% q/q as shown by the preliminary numbers. Moreover, the components will also be released, and here we expect to see that the private consumption has been the main driver. German trade balance figures for October are due for release on Wednesday. Here the focus will be on the exports numbers, where investors will look for the degree of weakness remaining.”
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