Australian Dollar
Expected Range 0.7280 – 0.7380
The Australian dollar relinquished gains earned in the wake of Wednesday dovish Federal Reserve address through trade on Thursday as risk appetite demands and tumbling commodity prices forced investors to dump riskier assets. Having touched intraday highs at 0.7425 in early trade the Aussie gave up 140 points tumbling to session lows at 0.7287 before profit taking added some support. Despite a stable labour market print weakness across commodity prices and general nervousness ahead of next week’s Brexit referendum forced investors into haven assets and currency flows poured out of commodity linked currencies and into the Yen and Swiss Franc. Attentions now turn to a quiet macroeconomic calendar with direction into the weekly close likely to be driven by risk flows ahead of next week’s major volatility event.
New Zealand Dollar
Expected Range 0.6950 – 0.7100
The New Zealand dollar edged marginally lower through trade on Thursday relinquishing gains earned in the aftermath of the Fed’s dovish monetary policy outlook. The Kiwi found support in early trade buoyed by a stronger than expected first quarter GDP print. Touching intraday highs at 0.7091 profit taking and demand for risk forced a sharp selloff and the NZD moved through 0.70 to touch intraday lows at 0.6971 before markets steadied and technical supports kicked in. With little of note on today’s economic docket direction into the weekend will likely be driven by demand for risk ahead of next week’s Brexit decision and major volatility event. 0.6950 – 0.7100.
Great British Pound
Expected Range 1.9100 – 1.9400
The Great British Pound steadied through trade on Thursday extending marginal gains earned in the wake of Wednesday’s dovish Federal Reserve policy announcement. Touching intraday highs at 1.4251 Sterling found support in an upbeat retail sales print and predictably neutral Monetary Policy Committee rate statement. The MPC offered little to excite investors as attentions were squarely focused on next week’s Brexit referendum. Advocates pushing to remain within the EU received widespread support after British MP and pro “stay” campaigner Jo Cox was shot and killed as she met with constituents. MP’s suspend all further campaigning and the wider Brexit debate was pushed aside as members and the public come to terms with the shock attack. With attentions elsewhere direction through trade on Friday will likely stem from risk flows.
Majors
Expected Range N/A
The Japanese Yen was Thursday’s big mover rallying strongly across the board touching fresh three and two year highs against the Euro and U.S Dollar respectively. The world’s safe haven stalwart found support in the wake of the Bank of Japan’s decision to maintain its current stimulus package while diminishing risk appetite forced investors to deepen their Yen reserves ahead of next week’s Brexit referendum. Analysts largely anticipated the BoJ would choose to refrain from amending its existing monetary policy platform ahead of such a significant market event. The decision prompted investors sitting on the sidelines following Wednesday’s dovish U.S Federal Reserve statement (a statement that affirmed the pace of tightening US interest rates will suffer further delay) to back the Yen into new territory. The Greenback plunged nearly 2% hitting session lows at 103.65 while EUR/JPY tapped 115.54. Profit taking did help to slow the decline however a marginally decline in monthly inflation saw the Dollar consolidate losses and struggle to mount any real recovery. Risk flow will continue to dominate direction through trade on Friday as investors look to a relatively quiet economic docket for marginal macroeconomic queues.