Market sees downside risk in Q2 GDP – Nomura

FXStreet (Mumbai) – Research Analysts at Nomura note that consensus expect Japanese GDP growth in FY 2015 to be revised down as per the JCER Survey.

Key Quotes:

“Consensus expectations for Japanese GDP growth in FY2015 were revised down further, according to the JCER.”

“The FY2015 GDP growth forecast is now at +1.21%, compared with +1.66% a month ago. Q2 GDP data scheduled for release next Monday, is now expected to record -1.55% (q-o-q, saar), downgraded by 2.27ppt from a month ago.”

“We also expect the economy to have recorded negative growth in Q2, but consensus expectations are more pessimistic than our forecast (-0.9%, see “We estimate negative q-q real GDP growth in Q2”, 31 July 2015).”

“The BOJ downgraded its FY2015 growth forecast at its July meeting, but the divergence between the BOJ and consensus forecasts is widening.”

“The BOJ is likely to have to consider further downgrading its economic forecast, if GDP growth disappoints the Bank as the market expects.”

Research Analysts at Nomura note that consensus expect Japanese GDP growth in FY 2015 to be revised down as per the JCER Survey.

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